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期權大單 | 受百億補貼影響,京東期權成交量大漲

一、市場概況

2月21日週二,美股低開低走,三大指數集體收跌。道指下挫近700點,標普500指數失守4000點關口。美元走強、美債收益率攀升。投資者擔心美聯儲繼續加息並長期維持高利率政策將導致經濟衰退。最新財報預示着消費者狀況轉差。

二、期權異動

成交量排行方面,除了傳統的標普ETF、納指ETF、特斯拉之外,AMC院線異軍突起,排行第四。AMC院線正股週二表現強勢,逆勢大漲超16%。在過去5個交易日,AMC院線漲35.56%,在2月漲14.02%,年初至今漲49.88%。消息面上,AMC院線目前的處境並不太美妙,公司仍在努力解決鉅額債務問題,同時它也在尋求通過新的商業項目和影院收購來增強散戶股東的信心。

在2021年散戶逼空華爾街的大戰中,AMC曾是雙方爭奪的重點之一,在當年6月2日內,AMC股價暴漲近100%,股價創下歷史新高。而在2021年初至當天,股價更是足足上漲逾20倍。

2022年AMC暴跌85%,似乎已經消退了所有銳氣,但年初以來的情況表明,美國散戶們還沒有放棄。

不過,從週二的期權交易情況看,目前行情的投機氛圍還是比較重的,3月到期的PUT單也有較多佈局,想複製逼空行情,還有很多不確定性。

阿裏巴巴將於週四盤前發佈財報,可能有資金提前佈局。而京東周二低開大跌11%,較爲罕見。消息面上,據知情人士稱,京東計劃在3月8日推出100億元人民幣的補貼活動。對此,投資者是有所擔憂的:一是在目前的宏觀環境下,燒錢競爭的風險加大,且與公司降本增效的策略不符。二是在長時間的燒錢促銷下,京東能否勝過拼多多?

近兩年,京東受各種因素影響丟掉了一部分用戶,現在打價格戰,可能已經晚了一些,對利潤會有多大損傷,更是難以預估。

值得思考的是,芒格在近期表示,他被阿裏在互聯網上的地位迷住了,卻沒考慮到阿裏仍是零售行業,且面臨着激烈的競爭,阿裏是互聯網上每一個人的競爭對手,這不是個可以輕鬆搞定的事情。

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