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《大行報告》美銀證券下調物管股目標價 首選華潤萬象生活(01209.HK)及保利物業(06049.HK)
美銀證券發表研究報告指,過去半個月見到內地個別地區樓市出現愈來愈多復甦跡象,認為投資者對當局推出大規模寬鬆政策已降低預期,未來市場銷售復甦將會對該板塊有良好支撐。 基於去年上半年的低基數,美銀相信市場上較優質的開發商未來數月合約銷售表現約回升至少10%,而之前銷售表現相對疲軟的優質內房發展商將跑贏,看好萬科(02202.HK)、中國海外(00688.HK)及新城發展(01030.HK),同時預期華潤置地(01109.HK)及龍湖(00960.HK)可受惠於中國房地產投資信託基金(C-REITs)的發展。 在物業管理公司中,該行首選為華潤萬象生活(01209.HK)及保利物業(06049.HK),預計有國企背景支持的物管股2022財年盈利增長將超過20%,民營企業盈利表現將持平或按年下跌,將去年行業平均每股盈利預測下調10%,並下調了物管股的目標價。 美銀維持去年全年中國新房銷量持平至下降8%的預測,預期樓價將相對穩定,考慮到需求被壓抑,預計今年二手交易量將增長5%至10%,同時預測去年內房發展商盈利將平均下跌40%。中證監宣布啟動不動產私募投資基金試點工作,該行預期將有助行業去槓桿。
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