美股“杀盈利”,别期待这次“不一样”
年初以来,美国经济或已步入“衰退”区,历史回溯来看,美股在美国经济衰退期的下跌从未“缺席”。
1955 年以来美国经济共经历了 10 轮衰退,有两方面共性特征:
1)历轮中,美股最低点均出现在衰退开始后;多数衰退周期中,标普 500 相对衰退起点回调约 20%,美股最低点一般在步入衰退后 1-2 个季度时出现。
2)历轮衰退中,美股均经历了 EPS 的回调,回调幅度通常在 10%-20%间;“杀盈利”通常在衰退起点前后 2 个月内开始,持续约 2 个季度。
美股衰退初期的反弹并不多见;与当下类似,1980 年初、2001 年初美股反弹的动能同样是衰退预期的阶段性降温,最终反弹均未能延续。当下宏观形势可能更差,正式步入衰退的过程中,本轮美股或难逃一跌。
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