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美股“殺盈利”,別期待這次“不一樣”
uSMART盈立智投 02-21 15:24

年初以來,美國經濟或已步入“衰退”區,歷史回溯來看,美股在美國經濟衰退期的下跌從未“缺席”。

1955 年以來美國經濟共經歷了 10 輪衰退,有兩方面共性特徵:

1)歷輪中,美股最低點均出現在衰退開始後;多數衰退週期中,標普 500 相對衰退起點回調約 20%,美股最低點一般在步入衰退後 1-2 個季度時出現。

2)歷輪衰退中,美股均經歷了 EPS 的回調,回調幅度通常在 10%-20%間;“殺盈利”通常在衰退起點前後 2 個月內開始,持續約 2 個季度。

美股衰退初期的反彈並不多見;與當下類似,1980 年初、2001 年初美股反彈的動能同樣是衰退預期的階段性降溫,最終反彈均未能延續。當下宏觀形勢可能更差,正式步入衰退的過程中,本輪美股或難逃一跌。

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