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惠譽:中國重新開放將推動成品油市場小幅回暖 料中石化(00386.HK)盈利回升
惠譽評級表示,監於消費者出行活動增加及信心增強,中國重新開放將帶動今年成品油消費回暖。消費增速或保持在中單位數,主要制約因素在於,能源轉型以及全球經濟增長或將放緩所致工業需求回升面臨不確定性。 基於惠譽的預估,主要成品油汽油和航空煤油合計約佔成品油消費總量的25%,而柴油佔比平均爲25%。乘用車電氣化水平提升將令汽油消費增速放緩,特別是在新能源汽車普及率較高的城鎮地區。即便如此,汽油消費量的整體回升仍受到傳統燃油車油耗高基數效應的支撐。 惠譽預期,今年專注於下遊業務的中石化(00386.HK)的整體盈利將在一定程度上回升,前提是成品油銷量回暖,並在今年平均原油成本下降的推動下改善下遊煉化與營銷業務利潤率。在當前下遊定價機制下,原油成本降低有利於紓解成本傳導壓力。然而,潛在庫存損耗將部分抵銷利潤率提升帶來的利好。同樣,石油化工行業亦可能呈現一定復甦,但仍面臨全球需求疲軟的挑戰,原因在於全球經濟衰退風險及國內需求低迷,後者需取決於樓市和相關出口行業的復甦步伐。 惠譽仍預期,監於規模龐大的煉油產能將於未來幾年逐步投產,政府將利用原油進口配額和成品油出口配額來實現國內供需平衡。迄今下發的成品油出口配額已按年勁增46%。成品油出口量在其消費總量中的佔比較小,但在國內需求首先得到滿足的前提下,中國石油天然氣集團及其核心子公司中石油(00857.HK)、中國石化以及中海油(00883.HK)等主要出口商或依然能夠從柴油和航空煤油較高的出口利潤中受益。去年以來俄烏衝突使上述成品油產品的出口利潤率一直保持在高位。
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