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惠譽:清零政策結束 中國建築業今年盈利能力將改善
惠譽評級表示,中國不再實施防疫清零政策,預期將對中國建築業產生正面影響,預期今年建築企業營運和盈利能力將改善。 官方建築業採購經理人指數自2022年10月的58.2和11月的55.4,降至12月的54.4,反映出政府放寬防疫限制措施後建築活動溫和放緩。惠譽認為,建築活動放緩僅屬暫時現象,主要由於建築工人確診導致缺勤率增加,以及華北地區冬季施工停滯等短期和季節性因素所致。 隨著農曆新年假期結束及疫情逐步緩解,該行預期建築活動有望在未來幾個月恢復至正常水平,估計今年建築公司營運及盈利能力將較2020至2022年水平有所改善,而中國放寬國際旅行限制措施也將提振中國建築企業的海外業務。 不過,惠譽相信,中國建築行業仍要面對國內樓市低迷等主要風險,當中較看好中國中鐵(00390.HK)及中交建(01800.HK)等龍頭企業,認為擁有市場領導地位、基建業務敞口、多元化業務及暢通的融資渠道,更能應對行業挑戰。
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