《大行報告》麥格理:九毛九(09922.HK)為行業首選 目標價上調至22元
麥格理發表報告指,預計大中華區餐廳品牌在2022財年下半年表現疲軟,主要是由於去年第四季的疫情反彈,餐廳目前有望復甦,惟復甦步伐或會起伏不定。該行認為,今年第二季將會是盈利拐點,看好優質的營運商,九毛九(09922.HK)為行業首選,其次為呷哺呷哺(00520.HK),該行分別予「跑贏大市」及「中性」評級,而海底撈(06862.HK)及百勝中國(09987.HK)(YUMC.US)則予「跑輸大市」評級。
該行指出,今年1月九毛九旗下的太二和同名九毛九品牌的同店銷售恢復了中高單位數的按年增長,其中太二略微領先。展望疫情后的復甦,從長遠來看,集團是最看好的餐廳營運商,相信集團的品牌組合將有助於其在多變的消費者偏好下保持增長勢頭。該行上調對九毛九目標價由14.6元升至22元,相當於綜合市盈率30倍。
該行提到,海底撈在去年進行了多次KPI(考核指標)變更,以提高單店營運效率。該行認可管理層提高盈利能力和振興品牌的舉措,但鑑於消費者有多種選擇,其品牌吸引力仍然令人擔憂。同時,隨著餐廳恢復滿負荷營運,今年的員工成本可能會再次上升。該行上調海底撈目標價由14.8元升至17元。
另外,呷哺呷哺在北京和華北地區的業務佔比較高,其今年以來的恢復速度亦較湊湊快。該行預計品牌之間會有激烈競爭,而呷哺呷哺的燒肉品牌「趁燒」正在迅速擴張,惟認為目前斷定這品牌能否成功規模化仍然是為時過早。該行上調呷哺呷哺目標價由3.7元升至8.4元,相當預測2024財年市盈率24倍。
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