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《本地樓市》星展料今年住宅樓價走勢平穩 貴價地皮仍有流標風險
星展香港研究部執行董事丘卓文在記者會上表示,隨著與內地通關及股市回升,對本港樓市帶來財富效應,加上本地買家不再等待時機入市,積壓需求釋放令近期新盤餘貨銷售明顯加快。他相信通關會是今年住宅市場最主要的正面因素,但另一方面按息估計仍有上升空間,今年最優惠利率可能升至約6厘,或會對市場造成一定限制,因此料今年整體樓價僅會平穩發展。 丘卓文提到,去年本港住宅單位庫存上升四成,已推盤/獲預售同意書但未售出單位達1.8萬伙,預期發展商今年上半年開價不會太進取,會先求量以減少餘貨。他今年相對看好豪宅市場,認為通關後有利內地買家來港購買豪宅,而且豪宅單位數量不多,估計豪宅樓價今年或可升約5%。 土地供應方面,他稱去年本港地價已下跌三成,預料其中兩至三間財力雄厚的大型發展商會趁機補充土儲,例如長實集團(01113.HK)及信和置業(00083.HK)。丘卓文相信今年市場投地氣氛會較去年佳,但部分估值或達百億元的貴價地皮仍有流標風險,特別是發展期較長的商業地。 對於在去年市況欠佳下,地產股會否削減派息,他指除非業績表現很差,否則本港地產商都傾向維持與上年相同的派息,估計下月業績期地產股派息會大致保持平穩,部分一兩間有可能增加派息。至於市場預期行業中負債較高的新世界(00017.HK)或會供股,丘氏稱供股與否視乎多種因素,認為新世界會先用其他方法管理財務。
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