郭思治:恆指續試低位形態頗明顯 中糧家佳康(01610.HK)配售料利好
香港股票分析師協會副主席郭思治稱,大市已開始步入2月份之下旬,而直到目前一刻止計,本月大市之形態仍暫屬先高而後低,恆指暫是由2日之高位22,311點跌至17日之低位20,703點,即月內之波幅已稍擴闊至1,608點,由於市已漸跌離高位,故續試低位之形態頗明顯,嚴格而言,一日恆指仍未能成功重越10天線之前,續試低位之弱態不變。
市場預期內地豬價將會反彈回升,加上內需餐飲板塊已停止下滑,因此以中糧家佳康(01610.HK)為代表的豬肉股股價有較大上升空間,而其近期走勢展現了其兼具穩定性與抗風險性,具有極高的反彈價值和長期投資價值。
另外,公司發了公告和通函,向主要股東中糧集團以每股2.3港元發行6.8億股新股,集資金額達15.6億港元,公司表示集資款項約70%用於擴大產能及加強品牌生鮮豬肉分銷,餘下約30%用於償還短期貸款及補充一般營運資金。老實說,公司獲國企股東中糧集團增持,無疑給市場打了「強心劑」,憧憬未來公司生豬養殖規模優勢更加顯著,獲得更高的市佔率和議價權。
在資本結構方面,截至去年6月30日,公司資產負債比率為61.2%,在完成股份認購後,公司的資產負債比率降至57.3%,實現了資本結構的優化、降低了資產負債比率及財務風險。隨著內地放寬防疫政策和市場轉暖,期待公司盈利情況能隨著市場情緒持續改善,資本結構能夠繼續優化和調整。
另外,從中糧家佳康盈利端觀察,公司利潤與豬肉價格呈正相關關係。2月初內地春節假期結束進入節後慣性低谷期,而至到2月中,居民已基本結束節前囤貨消耗,新增採購需求回暖,預判未來2月末至5月初大豬價格震盪上漲,預計2023全年,內地豬價將呈前低後高的弱復甦態勢,為公司帶來業績反彈及增長的動力。
這次大股東的新股認購有待3月10日股東特別大會上獨立股東投票通過。總觀而言,大股東認購新股肯定對公司能帶來正面幫助,建議小股東投票支持有關決議案,如此將有望壯大公司資金實力,擴大公司生產及分銷規模,提高行業競爭力這樣公司的盈利能力和股價未來表現將會被看高一線。
(筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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