大行評級 | 大摩:料中石油利潤將轉移至上游,升目標價至5.5港元
格隆匯2月17日丨大摩發研報,調升中國石油(0857.Hk)H股的目標價至5.5港元,以反映更快的燃氣投資預期,以及公司的利潤池將於未來5年轉移至上游產業,評級“增持”。
報吿指,為了保證能源安全和燃氣供應的自給自足,預期中國能源行業的盈利池將轉移至上游產業,認為未來將有更多上游投資和發展鑽井技術,重申中石油是中國能源板塊中的首選,而天然氣價值增長將推動該股獲重估。
報吿又指,中國為在2030年前實現碳達峯,增加天然氣使用比率至關重要,預計中國的天然氣消費直至2030年將保持在複合年增長率8.5%,較市場預測的5%-6%為高;天然氣產量的複合年增長率亦達6.3%。中國還具有“頁巖氣”的巨大上行潛力,可以提高自給率並取代液化天然氣進口,預計到2025年,中石油將佔中國天然氣利潤池的60%;相信中石油將帶領中國長期的能源轉型,在石油需求達到頂峯和可再生能源投資回報改善後,集團將有更多能力投資可再生能源。

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