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華爾街高管:對美國軟着陸更有信心了
uSMART盈立智投 02-15 15:59

高盛、美銀、富國銀行高管認爲,美國經濟好於企業的預期,市場情緒也比幾個月前更爲樂觀。

這表明華爾街越來越相信,美聯儲在抗擊通脹的同時能夠避免衰退,實現所謂的美國經濟“軟着陸”。

當地時間週二,高盛首席執行官David Solomon在瑞信組織的一次行業會議上表示: “CEO圈子的共識已經發生了轉變,隨着美國經濟以更溫柔的方式着陸,我們能夠度過難關,這一預期比6個月前變得更加溫和一些。”

美銀首席執行官Brian Moynihan持類似觀點,週二他在美銀證券金融服務會議上表示,中型企業的利潤率“比他們想象的要好”,消費者支出仍然強勁。在美國的經濟活動中,消費者支出所佔的比重高達三分之二。

Moynihan表示:“如果你看看消費者,他們一直在花錢。”“這些消費者有錢。他們有工作,他們花錢,他們有很強的借貸能力。”

富國銀行首席財務官Michael Santomassimo也表示: “支出數據仍然非常健康。”

僅僅過去數月,華爾街高管們的語氣就發生了明顯轉變。

去年年底,華爾街高管們雖然強調消費者支出具有一定韌性,但對全球經濟的展望仍是相對謹慎的。當時Solomon警告稱,高盛的一些客戶“聽起來非常謹慎”。

然而,當前美國頂級企業的領導人對於衰退的前景出現分歧,勞動力市場從去年下半年以來表現出了令人震驚的彈性,重燃“軟着陸”的希望。

本週標普全球的風險偏好指數顯示,投資者的風險偏好仍爲負值,不過厭惡風險的程度已降至去年11月以來的最低水平。

但Solomon警告稱,通脹“仍然具有粘性”,“抑制通脹的確切軌跡仍不確定”。他認爲,經濟將在未來一段時間內增長緩慢。

美國1月CPI回落幅度遜於市場預期,幾乎坐實美聯儲進一步加息的預期,交易員押注美聯儲在7月加息至利率峯值5.27%,不再100%預期今年降息。

儘管如此,摩根大通首席財務官Jeremy Barnum在會議上表示,摩根大通管理層預計“通脹將逐漸得到控制”。

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