《大行報告》高盛調整中資原材料股目標價 江銅(00358.HK)加入確信買入名單
高盛發表研究報告指,將今年中國主要商品的需求預測上調2.4至7.5%。預計鋰需求增長15.8%,箱板紙增長8.1%,銅增長3.9%,煤炭增長1%;隨後水泥、鋼鐵和鋁的需求收縮1.8至7.8%。與之前的預測相比,最大的修正是箱板紙,因為它對消費者相關需求的敞口很大;其次是銅和鋁,主要是受更高的可再生能源增長前景的推動,加上在重新開放的背景下,反映低供應鏈庫存風險。
該行認為,去年第四季被壓抑的需求及中國重新開放導致營運狀況正常化,正在為今年上半年農曆新年後需求的意外上行奠定基礎。在行業層面,該行強調看好對銅和煤炭,這兩個行業的供/需基本面都更強,行業利用率在今年保持在90%以上的高水平,因此其價格彈性會更高。該行對水泥、鋼鐵、鋁和紙張行業持謹慎態度,因為建築相關需求敞口較高,增量供/需平衡改善有限。該行重申對鋰定價前景的負面看法。
該行提到,自重新開放開以來,中國大宗商品股票的整體股價表現上漲7%,而滬深300指數的漲幅為4%,恆生指數則為13%。基礎金屬(17%)引領先勢,其次是紙張(9%)、鋼鐵(6%)、水泥(4%)、電池材料(3%)和煤炭(-6%)。該行認為,銅的風險回報有利,予紫金H股(02899.HK)「買入」評級(確信名單);同時將江銅(00358.HK)納入確信名單,評級「買入」,因該股在近期反彈表現落後同業,提供了估值修復空間。
該行將銅股行業2023至24年盈利預測上調了4至55%。 由於五礦資源(01208.HK)在秘魯的營運持續面臨挑戰,將其盈利下調5至32%。該行將九龍紙業(02689.HK)的評級從「中性」下調至「沽售」,認為市場對其利潤率過份樂觀。
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