《大行報告》高盛:HIBOR蓄勢待升 「買入」中銀香港(02388.HK)及匯控(00005.HK) 「沽售」恆生(00011.HK)
高盛發表報告指,本港香港銀行同業拆息(HIBOR)走勢備受關注,港元自去年11月以來首次觸及弱方兌換保證,指HIBOR與倫敦同業拆放利率(LIBOR)利差明顯。該行指出,香港銀行同業拆息在今年首兩個月和第一季季節性較低。其次,香港於去年最後兩個月的流動性流入可能持續到今年,這亦對HIBOR有抑制作用,另外,HIBOR水平亦是關鍵,因為當HIBOR/LIBOR水平處於相對較高的水平時,第一季與LIBOR的利差特別大,但隨著時間推移下料會有收窄。
該行表示,稍後發表的本港銀行股業績,尤其是在香港銀行的淨息差與一個月HIBOR的關係密切的情況下。該行較早前下調了淨息差啤打值假設,現在預計一個月HIBOR將上升310個基點,大型本地香港銀行,即中銀香港(02388.HK)、恆生銀行(00011.HK)的淨息差於今年按年僅升24個基點。
該行預計,香港銀行同業拆息將在港元銀行間結餘縮減的推動下走高,將有助於本港銀行股估值。隨著HIBOR上升,料港銀淨息差亦會隨之改善。該行維持對這恆生銀行的「沽售」評級,目標價為116元,因為該銀行的港元資產負債表敞口及融資成本最高;予中銀香港和匯控(00005.HK)均「買入」評級,目標價分別為33.9元及70元。
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