瑞銀料美國今年通脹將逐步放緩 2至3月核心CPI增約25個基點
瑞銀投資銀行研究部首席美國經濟學家Jonathan Pingle表示,根據今日美國發布的CPI資料,預計1月整體PCE價格增長0.54%,核心PCE價格增長0.48%。12個月整體/核心PCE價格變動因而來到5.2%/4.5%,與12月基本持平,並低於去年2月高峰的5.4%。
該行預計,今年美國通脹將逐步放緩,目前預期2至3月核心CPI將增長約25個基點,之後將進一步放慢。但預計未來6個月的通脹波動性較高,一些月份可能顯著低於或高於預測。由於汽油價格持續下跌,現時料2月整體CPI將增長27個基點(季調)。
美國1月季調整體CPI增長明顯加速,從11/12月調整後的0.21%/0.13%升至0.52%,因為汽油價格前兩個月拉低CPI,而1月推高CPI。12個月CPI通脹微降0.1個百分點至6.4%,遠低於6月的高峰9.1%,但仍非常高。除汽油價格外,食品價格繼續放緩,內地食品價格錄得一年半以來的最低月增幅,核心CPI增速高於過去幾個月,但低於2021年春通脹開始飆升以來的大部分時間。
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