瑞銀:內地年底信貸增速或升至約10% 料今年整體財政赤字率微升
瑞銀投資銀行亞洲經濟研究主管暨首席中國經濟學家汪濤表示,預計內地2023年整體財政赤字率和地方政府專項債券額度小幅上升,因此預計年底信貸增速可能升至10%左右;若政策支持力度強於目前預期,信貸增速也可能會升至11%甚至更高。
汪濤表示,1月新增人民幣貸款季節性躍升至4.9萬億元人民幣(下同),高於月初的市場預期,不過與上周顯著升溫的市場判斷基本一致;新增中長期住戶貸款依然乏力,按年少增5,190億元。中長期住戶貸款依然乏力主要由於房地產銷售較弱,同時近期部分購房者提前還房貸可能也有一定影響。
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