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瑞銀孟磊:今年北向資金淨流入有望逾3,000億人幣
阿思達克 02-09 11:45
瑞銀證券中國股票策略分析師孟磊表示,陸股通由去年初至今,受疫情反覆和國際地緣政治風險的擾動,北向資金淨流入的節奏一度偏離長期趨勢。不過,近一個季度北向資金的大幅淨流入已使累計淨流入額修正至此前的長期趨勢。他認為,隨著未來更多經濟反彈的證據的出現,還會有一部分長線外資淨流入A股市場,而今年北向資金淨流入量有望達3000億元人民幣(下同)以上。 對於北向資金1月淨流入達1413億元,為2014年底陸股通開通以來最高的單月值。孟磊認為,北向資金大幅淨流入A股市場主要得益於疫情防控政策優化和宏觀政策放鬆,今年中國經濟有望顯著反彈。相比之下歐美經濟面臨衰退風險,加上A股市場自去年11月以來跑輸海外上市的中資股。 基本面方面,瑞銀證券宏觀團隊預計GDP增速或將在第二季出現明顯反彈。流動性方面,公募基金新發規模滯後於股市表現約三個月,因此場外資金有望在2月開始更大規模地入市。同時,境內私募基金也或將隨之提高其股票倉位追逐上漲趨勢。
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