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消費回暖,“禁酒令”風波消散,就説ETF、食品飲料ETF大漲
格隆匯 02-09 12:00

2月9日早盤,白酒、啤酒股集體反彈。百潤股份漲停,燕京啤酒、伊力特漲超7%,今世緣、重慶啤酒、惠泉啤酒漲超4%,捨得酒業、瀘州老窖、口子窖、珠江啤酒、五糧液漲超3%。

2月6日,中國人保財險公佈的一份“禁酒令”嚇出市場一身冷汗。消息傳出後,當日白酒股開盤後股價集體走低,盤中五糧液、瀘州老窖跌幅超過4%。

近日,“禁酒令”風波消散,白酒股集體反彈。酒ETF漲 3.06 %、飲料ETF、食品ETF、食品飲料ETF、飲食ETF 、食品50ETF漲幅超2%。

浙商證券研報稱,2023年春節白酒動銷呈現前低後高,整體白酒動銷預計恢復至2022年同期9成,略超預期。中信建投研報稱,白酒動銷陸續恢復,估值具備提升空間。春節及之後白酒動銷場景恢復帶來行業需求回升是較為明顯的趨勢;主流單品批價將企穩回升上;宏觀經濟及行業信心得到提升,外資持續迴流,行業景氣度回升後估值將具備明顯提升空間。

華創證券董廣陽表示,整體來看,2023年可以説是食品飲料實現困境反轉的一年,估值和業績都將實現修復。

董廣陽指出,過去兩年間,除方便速食、預製菜等居家消費品類沒有受到太大影響外,相對可選的餐飲、自身溢價能力比較強的白酒等,受到的影響都比較大。其中,調味品、餐飲供應鏈等食品公司,除了銷售大幅下降,疊加運輸、包裝成本的提高,利潤更是出現大幅下降,業績受損比較嚴重。

董廣陽表示,隨着相關政策的進一步優化,居民生活半徑打開後,食品飲料行業的動銷進入到全面的恢復過程中。同時,在春節的剛需推動下,此前約45天的消費,今年集中到了1月份第一週以來的這段時間內,進一步提高了行業動銷的恢復速度。

從目前情況看,董廣陽認為,食品飲料行業的消費復甦已經非常明確了,具體節奏大概會分為兩個階段。第一階段,是春節期間,動銷數據會非常理想,恢復強勁。第二階段,則是春節後進入相對淡季,然後從四五月份之後到端午節、中秋節,迎來新的改善週期。這個階段,隨着淡季的逐步過去,市場有望迎來一波比較長的平穩上漲行情,同時不排除隨着資金、政策等方面出現進一步改善後,有更強勁的表現。

此外,新華社報道,隨着更好統籌疫情防控和經濟社會發展,2023開年以來,國內消費復甦腳步加快,餐飲、旅遊、電影市場人氣旺盛,“暖”意十足。各地各部門乘勢而上,出台一系列政策舉措,提振消費信心,促進消費潛力持續釋放。

商務部市場運行和消費促進司司長徐興鋒表示,將根據今年新形勢,聚焦汽車、家居等重點領域,推動出台一批新政策。同時,統籌開展全國性消費促進活動,擴大智慧商店、智慧商圈保障作用,多渠道增加優質供給,加強縣域商業建設,持續做好全年促消費工作。

國泰君安證券研究所所長黃燕銘認為,2023年將是一輪中等級別的牛市,推動市場向上的動力來源於疫情、政策和經濟的不確定性逐漸消失所帶動的風險評價下行與風險偏好回升。全年的投資機會可以概括為“跟消費談戀愛,跟科技結婚”,前半階段的機會主要在以消費為代表的價值類股票,後半階段行情重點則是科技板塊。具體到今年科技股的行情節奏上,將是“先科技應用,後科技製造”,先聚焦計算機、互聯網、新能源新技術等科技應用股票的主題投資機遇,後關注強國目標下的科技製造賽道,尤其是“物理學與化學”,即裝備與新材料的投資機會。我們相信,在兩會以後落實二十大部署決策的過程中,科技板塊新一輪的投資機會將不斷湧現。

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