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《大行報告》國泰君安:港股「牛回頭」調整 料配置價值仍在 關注汽車及消費電子等板塊
國泰君安發表報告指,港股經歷兔年「開門紅」後,近期受內外因素共同影響而出現明顯調整。恆指2.2萬點是短期市場的心理關口,在缺乏催化的情形下沖破站穩較難,港股或圍繞這個位置附近進行盤整消化,以結構性行情為主。中美關係方面,暫不構成系統性風險,即使再度反覆,從歷史經驗來看,沖擊幅度約5至10%,2萬點附近或是底部區域;前期上漲較快導致的技術性調整不構成中期趨勢的賣點。 該行認為,國內經濟修復的趨勢延續,後續將帶動港股企業盈利出現明顯上修,同時海外流動性復甦交易仍在進行中,指數估值有望修復至去年初時的水平。催化劑是國內社融放量以及海外美聯儲政策轉向,時點可能在二季度前後。 報告又指,現階段建議關注汽車、消費電子等可選消費品種,其估值不貴,計入樂觀預期不足,仍然處在窪地,建議投資者積極關注。至於地產鏈逆境反轉策略。地產供給端「三箭齊發」,期待未來需求端政策。建議關注地產、金融、材料等行業。海外流動性反轉策略。 另外,由於今年美國通脹趨勢性下行,流動性反轉交易已提前啟動,目前仍在進行中。該行關注與美債更為敏感性行業,如港股創新藥、半導體、黃金等品種。
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