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德意志银行:今年金融市场更趋稳定 中国GDP增长3.3%
阿思达克 02-08 09:41
德意志银行集团国际私人银行部环球首席投资总监罗定忠发表报告指,投资者今年需留意通胀回落但仍会持续,其次,回报预期普遍温和但正面,另外,尽管预计今年金融市场将更趋稳定,但世界本质上依然存在风险。 他表示,如果通胀继续回落,且无需联储局采取强而有力的干预措施,美国经济有可能在今年下半年恢复增长,全年整体增长为0.4%。明年中国的经济势头或会更为强劲,料今年增长3.3%。他认为,中国持续的刺激措施最终将成功扭转其经济局面。中国经济复苏,加上区内经济重启,表示亚洲或会在今年大放异彩。 至于股市,他指出,就地区而言,今年投资者的焦点之一可能是欧洲。该地区最近的估值大幅折让,经济及地缘政治风险已经充分反映。美国股市当然仍将是焦点,但因其偏重科技股,对利率变动较为敏感,或会导致更大的投资风险,美元的预期走弱也可能如此。纵观各新兴经济体,亚洲市场依然最具吸引力。大量资金流向「避险」导致去年北亚市场,如韩国、台湾及中国内地的估值显著下降。当宏观经济环境及投资者情绪向好时,这些市场或会卷土重来。股票仍是多元化投资组合的重要组成部分。预计今年整体股价将出现可观的涨幅,但可能伴随大幅波动。
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