德意志銀行:今年金融市場更趨穩定 中國GDP增長3.3%
德意志銀行集團國際私人銀行部環球首席投資總監羅定忠發表報告指,投資者今年需留意通脹回落但仍會持續,其次,回報預期普遍溫和但正面,另外,儘管預計今年金融市場將更趨穩定,但世界本質上依然存在風險。
他表示,如果通脹繼續回落,且無需聯儲局採取強而有力的干預措施,美國經濟有可能在今年下半年恢復增長,全年整體增長為0.4%。明年中國的經濟勢頭或會更為強勁,料今年增長3.3%。他認為,中國持續的刺激措施最終將成功扭轉其經濟局面。中國經濟復甦,加上區內經濟重啟,表示亞洲或會在今年大放異彩。
至於股市,他指出,就地區而言,今年投資者的焦點之一可能是歐洲。該地區最近的估值大幅折讓,經濟及地緣政治風險已經充分反映。美國股市當然仍將是焦點,但因其偏重科技股,對利率變動較為敏感,或會導致更大的投資風險,美元的預期走弱也可能如此。縱觀各新興經濟體,亞洲市場依然最具吸引力。大量資金流向「避險」導致去年北亞市場,如韓國、台灣及中國內地的估值顯著下降。當宏觀經濟環境及投資者情緒向好時,這些市場或會捲土重來。股票仍是多元化投資組合的重要組成部分。預計今年整體股價將出現可觀的漲幅,但可能伴隨大幅波動。
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