機構：電商互聯網公司股價2023年迎來價值迴歸，關注三大主線
來源：智通財經APP
招商證券發佈研報稱，政策面上，國內互聯網監管基調向好，國際上PCAOB審計監管合作形勢好轉；基本面上，疫情管控政策放開後有望帶動消費復甦超預期，同時履約恢復推動電商經營好轉。資金面上，外資持續迴流表明看好中國市場。宏觀層面多重利好有望推動電商互聯網公司股價在2023年迎來價值迴歸。
投資主線一：預計直播電商增速趨緩，貨架電商格局改善，推薦$拼多多(PDD.US)$、$阿裏巴巴-SW(09988.HK)$、$京東集團-SW(09618.HK)$、$唯品會(VIPS.US)$。招商證券預計電商2023年增速爲11.8%，22-25E仍將保持雙位數增長，CAGR爲10.1%。招商證券預計直播電商2023年增速將明顯趨緩，電商格局將有所改善，利好貨架電商。其中，拼多多主站、買菜、跨境三條業務線驅動下有望持續高增長；阿裏巴巴受益於宏觀改善及直播電商衝擊減緩，預計電商業務長期仍有正增長，當前估值低彈性大;京東受益長期消費升級趨勢，收入與利潤有望維持穩健增長；唯品會預計2023年將顯著受益宏觀改善與品牌去庫存需求，迴歸正增長軌道。
投資主線二：即時零售保持高增長，重點推薦$達達集團(DADA.US)$，關注$叮咚買菜(DDL.US)$。招商證券預計即時零售將在未來保持高速增長，2026年達到萬億規模，2021-26年CAGR爲33%。招商證券預計頭部玩家GMV將繼續保持較高增速，重點推薦京東體系下高增長及盈利均具備較高確定性的平臺型即時零售龍頭達達集團;推薦關注盈利能力逐季改善的前置倉龍頭叮咚買菜。
投資主線三：本地生活將迎來強勁復甦，看好$美團-W(03690.HK)$成長性與壁壘，關注$攜程集團-S(09961.HK)$、$同程旅行(00780.HK)$。疫情放開後外賣與到店恢復超預期，行業中長期增長空間充足，抖音入局不改美團在本地生活領域的增長空間與壁壘，維持對美團的長期推薦；OTA行業邁入增長快車道，龍頭加速崛起，看好攜程集團、同程旅行在旅遊大盤恢復同時實現高於行業增速。
風險提示：疫情持續程度超預期；行業競爭加劇；公司新業務發展不達預期。
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