植耀輝:非農數據超預期美股跌 港股或下試21,000點水平
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,美股上周五(3日)下跌。美國非農新增職位遠超預期,投資者關注聯儲局未來加息步伐。受此影響,納指跌勢較顯著,跌幅達到1.6%;至於道指及標普500指數則分別下跌0.4%及1.04%。展望本周,包括主席鮑威爾在內之聯儲局官員本周將陸續發表講話,料對美息去向會有較大啟示;另外將有近90間標普500指數成份股將公布季績,當中便包括泰森食品(TSN.US)、迪士尼(DIS.US)及Paypal(PYPL.US)等。
至於港股,上周終出現調整,恆指累跌1,028點或4.5%,跌幅雖不算大,但在連升6個星期後終告「斷纜」,另外亦失守20天線支持。從技術上看,港股短期走勢確有轉弱跡象,尤其是20天線自11月後也甚少失守,故短期宜關注能否重上該水平。一旦未能重上該水平,則恐怕要進一步回落至21,000點關口;另外亦須留意在正式通關後對本地經濟復常是否帶來幫助,以及A股能否有所反彈。預期恆指將於20天線,即約21,600點附近爭持。
股份方面,焦點亦離不開一眾復常概念股。由今日(6日)起,內地將取消經粵港陸路口岸出入境預約通關安排,不設通關人員限額,並恢復內地居民與香港、澳門團隊旅遊經營活動。相關股份上周五(3日)個別發展,莎莎(00178.HK)及冠忠巴士(00306.HK)造好,不過六福(00590.HK)及周大福(01929.HK)則下跌。另外濠賭股亦見回落。不過筆者認為若以短線而言,濠賭股仍具一定值博率,畢竟通關對當地經濟會有正面幫助,加上一月賭收表現理想,若市況有所改善,濠賭股亦有望反彈。
(筆者為證監會持牌人,並未持有相關股份)
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非農數據佳美股偏軟 恆指調整料持續
耀才研究部稱,美國非農數據表現遠超預期,美股上周五(3日)偏軟,當中以納指跌幅較大。不過全周計,納指仍累升3.3%,連升第五周,標普500指數亦累升1.6%。至於金龍指數表現亦欠佳,上周五下跌近4%。
回說港股方面,上周五終出現較大調整,受A股下跌加上中資金融股拖累,下跌超過1,028點或4.5%。另外內房股表現亦差,當中碧桂園(02007.HK)及碧服(06098.HK)一周分別累跌超過13.6%及17%。由於大市整體氣氛有所轉弱,重磅科技股表現亦相當反覆,預期恆指反彈空間不大。加上短期走勢仍須視乎A股表現,若A股持續偏軟,則恆指或有機會進一步考驗21,000點關口。
技術走勢方面,恆指上周先後失守10天(22,023點)及20天線(21,690點)水平,走勢有所轉弱,短期若未能收復該水平,意味走勢將進一步走弱,或須回補4/1所遺留之上升裂口,亦即20,800點水平。
(筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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