《大行報告》高盛調整中資基建股目標價 薦中鐵建(01186.HK)
高盛發表報告,指該行所覆蓋的中資基建股業務組合高度偏向建築合約承包,當中,中鐵建(01186.HK)、中國中鐵(00390.HK)及中國建築(601668.SH)具物業發展業務敞口。隨著今年內地財政政策擴張性或有所放緩,料整體而言,所覆蓋建築股今年基建新訂單增長將由雙位數放緩至高單位數。
該行所覆蓋中資基建H股去年表現分化,中鐵跑贏大市,中鐵建表現對辦,中交建(01800.HK)跑輸大市,而中國建築國際(03311.HK)屬板塊H股中表現最差。
即使自去年10月底起A股及H股反彈,高盛指大部分建築股跑輸;本年至今,所有建築股亦跑輸,或因為板塊輪轉至價值股,以及板塊基本面與中國重新開放的關連度較低。
高盛稱,以企業價值對總投資現金比率(EV/GCI)計,該行所覆蓋所有中資建築股在板塊估值因現金流惡化致重大向下重評後,現估值均遠低於長期歷史水平。在相對基礎上,該行認為中國建築A股及中鐵建H股估值吸引(後者估值較中國中鐵H股呈折讓)。
該行顯著下調中鐵建及中交建今明兩年盈測,以反映毛利率假設下滑。該行調整中資基建股目標價,最新評級表列如下:
股份 | 投資評級 | 目標價(港元)
中國龍工(03339.HK) | 沽售 | 1.3元 -> 1.4元
中國鐵建(01186.HK) | 買入 | 7.6元 -> 6.4元
中國建築國際(03311.HK) | 中性 | 7.3元 -> 9.1元
中國中鐵(00390.HK) | 持有 | 5元 -> 4.9元
中國交通建設(01800.HK) | 沽售 | 3.5元 -> 3.3元
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