《大行報告》美銀證券:內地主板IPO改革對中金(03908.HK)屬重大利好 評級「買入」看20.3元
中證監宣布就股份發行註冊制改革徵求意見稿,美銀證券發表研究報告指,預計上半年主板註冊制改革將正式實施啟動,首批以註冊制上市主板公司相信最快於第三季出現,估計改革將令今年度內地IPO規模增長1,200億元人民幣,即按年增長21%,盈利貢獻料介乎5%至10%。
該行預期,投行業務市佔率較高的內地券商,包括中金公司(03908.HK)及中信証券(06030.HK)將是改革的主要受惠者,預期新政策實施下內地IPO市場將加快整合,龍頭券商市場份額將更加穩定地增長,對於中金等承銷業務貢獻較大的券商,預測今年度有形增量盈利貢獻將介乎3%至9%。
美銀表示,考慮到其領先市場地位,內地主板全面實施註冊制對中金最為利好,預計中金市場份額將提升,承銷業務收入和盈利貢獻將加大,給予目標價20.3元。中信証券作為中國最大的券商也可能受益,但由於其收入結構均衡,投行業務收入受拉動幅度將低於中金,目標價22.3元。予兩股評級均為「買入」。
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