《大行報告》瑞銀降今年布油預測至每桶90美元 薦中石化、中海油服及億華通
瑞銀發表研究報告指,今年1月國際油價持續波動,主要受中國需求回暖、俄羅斯管道石油出口強勁、全球經濟指標及加息預期等因素影響。1月布蘭特原油現貨價格小幅升至平均每桶約82.8美元。該行仍然預期石油需求將在今年恢復到2019年的水平,但將今年布蘭特原油價格預測從每桶95美元下調至每桶90美元。考慮到持續的低投資活動,該行維持中期油價預測不變。至於天然氣方面,1月亞洲液化天然氣(LNG)現貨價格按月下跌14%至24美元/百萬英熱單位,原因是在暖冬和歐洲庫存季節性增加的情況下短缺風險顯著降低。該行將其對2023及24年亞洲LNG現貨價格的預測分別下調了約40%及25%。
該行表示,從去年的初步業績來看,石油巨頭在去年四季度實現穩健的盈利,其中中石油(00857.HK)和中海油(00883.HK)的初步利潤好於預期,而煉油企業期內的虧損擴大。季內原油價格從每桶101美元跌至89美元,下游需求依然低迷。儘管如此,該行預計今年逆風緩和,煉油企業盈利將逐步恢復。
該行提到,由於近期部分化工商品價格上漲,看好相關個股,即龍佰集團(002601.SZ)、衛星化學(002648.SZ)、萬華實業(600309.SH)。此外,該行推薦估值不高、分紅高的中石化(00386.HK)(600028.SH)的A/H股、及中海油服(02883.HK);盈利有望好轉的大型煉油企業如恆力石化(600346.SH)、榮盛石化(002493.SZ),以及需求快速增長的新材料生產商如精工科技(002006.SZ)、億華通(02402.HK)(688339.SH)的A/H股及晶瑞電材(300655.SZ)。以上均予「買入」評級。
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