中銀香港:歐洲央行將持續加息控通脹 英倫銀行加息週期即將完結
歐洲央行與英倫銀行分別進行議息會議。中銀香港個人數字金融產品部財富策略及分析處資深財富策略師高耀豪表示,歐洲央行繼續採取目前最鷹派的方向,而英倫銀行則較為鴿派,顯示加息週期即將完結。
歐洲央行如預期加息半厘。高耀豪表示,歐央行很大可能於5月繼續加息,又指今年是通脹下行的一年,由於通脹普遍於去年第一季末起急升,代表今年由第一季末開始會再出現按年基數效應,從而相對壓抑通脹,所以加息步伐將下降至0.25%,使存款利率到達3.25%。歐元於議息結果公布後回落,這主要因為加息消息已經反映,但由於未來數月歐央行較美聯儲鷹派,高耀豪預計歐元表現應相對穩定。
至於英倫銀行亦如市場預期加息半厘,高耀豪表示,英倫銀行議息指引重回到比較溫和的策略。高耀豪認為,代表英倫銀行未來應該回到以數據判斷的階段。在央行預期通脹將快速向4%回落及經濟處於一段衰退期的預期下,高耀豪相信英倫銀行有較大可能於3月議息會議再加息0.25%後,便完成今次加息週期,這亦與目前利率市場反映的預期一致。
高耀豪表示,由於英倫銀行再度轉趨鴿派,將會影響英鎊未來表現,主要將體現於目前仍處於加息週期中貨幣的交叉匯率之上。 (ca/u)
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