中銀香港料聯邦基金利率或升至5厘見頂 今年內減息機會不大
聯儲局一如市場預期宣布加息0.25厘,令聯邦基金利率目標範圍升至介乎4.5至4.75厘。中銀香港(02388.HK)私人銀行副總經理陳衛全表示,今次是美聯儲連續第二次減慢加息步伐,證明加息週期已逐漸步入尾聲,主因是美國通脹率升至去年第四季9%的高位後已呈現下降趨勢。陳衛全相信,聯儲局今年仍有一至兩次加息機會,當終極利率升至5厘後,才會停止加息。
陳衛全指,今年餘下時間減息機會不大,因為美國最近的就業及經濟增長數據仍然非常理想,令年內出現大幅度衰退的機會不大。另一方面,過去幾年全球不少國家實施貿易限制,降低全球自由貿易帶來的通脹緩減作用,令全球面對結構性通脹的挑戰,故此,除非全球經濟面對大幅度衰退的風險,否則美聯儲應該偏向保持較高利率水平一段長時間。現時的利率情況只是從過去十多年超寬鬆貨幣政策逐步回復正常。
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