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《大行報告》高盛將中銀香港(02388.HK)剔出確信買入名單 降渣打(02888.HK)及恆生(00011.HK)評級
高盛發表研究報告指,香港銀行股在今次加息週期跑贏恆生指數,與前兩次加息週期形成鮮明對比。然而,較長期的美元市場利率已經見頂,歷史先例表明估值會短期內擴張。去年銀行業已錄得強勁的盈利增長,惟估值在去年第四季前一直壓縮,股價低於週期中期估值,股價有望進一步升值。 該行及利率期貨市場預計,美國聯儲局將從今年下半年至明年上半年開始降息。香港銀行同業拆息已在年初大幅下跌,目前水平低於3%。該行調低了對銀行的淨息差beta假設,並下調淨息差預期。隨著信貸成本的變化,該行將港銀2022至24年的每股盈測調整-34%至+29%。該行將中銀香港(02388.HK)剔出「確信買入」名單,維持「買入」評級,目標價由43.8元下調至33.9元;將渣打(02888.HK)由「買入」下調至「中性」,目標價由83元下調至79元;將恆生銀行(00011.HK)評級從「中性」下調至「沽售」,目標價由150元下調至116元;維持對匯控(0005.HK)的「買入」評級,以及對東亞銀行(00023.HK)和大新銀行(02356.HK)的「中性」評級,目標價分別為70元,11.1元及7.5元。 該行認為,最近重新通關為香港銀行提供更多的手續費收入和貸款增長機會,預計到2025年整體手續費收入的複合年增長率將達到6%,而迎合較好的銀行,即中銀香港、恆生銀行預計將達約9%。另外,在不利的在岸離岸利率差距背景下,該行預計貸款平均約錄中單位數增長。
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