《大行報告》瑞銀引述專家指全球航運需求展望疲弱 今年航運商盈利能力或大跌
瑞銀發表報告,指近期與航運業專家舉行會議,並引述歐洲運輸分析師Cristian Nedelcu指,料今年全球集裝箱運量按年跌3%,全球需求展望疲弱。隨著港口堵塞情況紓緩及運力釋放,未來數個月運費料續受壓,航運商盈利能力或大跌。
就兩大航運巨擘地中海航運公司(MSC)和馬士基日前發表聯合聲明,同意在2025年終止2M聯盟一事,報告引述Nedelcu指,未來數年航運業內聯盟或重組,2M聯盟解散令個別航運商在貨運量下滑時更難管理運力,因聯盟在協調運力上有優勢。即使2M聯盟解散或致議價能力下降,瑞銀料中國港口營運商難以從中顯著得益,因以往價格談判是與個別航運商進行,今年航運行業盈利能力惡化,或令港口商更難提升收費。
報告引述Nedelcu補充,中至長期而言,由於全球化見頂,未來航運增長或遇阻,他預期有更多供應鏈本地化。短期而言,新合約價格未必反映實時現貨運價,但隨時間過去,他預期,合約價將走近現貨運價,客戶將減少合約交易量,而將更多貨品轉以現貨運價計費。由於假設部分簽訂合約的客戶或爭取重新談判,預期今年第二、三季部分航運商或在保持盈利上苦苦爭扎。
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