《大行報告》瑞信:海螺水泥(00914.HK)去年盈警符預期 評級「跑贏大市」
瑞信發表報告指出,海螺水泥(00914.HK)發盈警預期去年純利介乎139.7億至166.3億元人民幣,按年減少50%至58%,符合市場預期,並意味著去年第四季淨利潤介乎16億至42億元人民幣,按年跌61%至86%。期內純利減少主要由於房地產需求低迷,令公司產品均價及銷量下降,而能源價格上升導致生產成本按年有所增加。
該行認為,短期而言,高庫存對內地水泥需求構成下行壓力;長期來看,內地政府支援政策則有助於需求復甦。如嚴控生產,或對海螺水泥毛利率不利。截至目前,僅有少數省份宣布今年錯峰生產計劃。同時,部分省份出現水泥供過於求的情況、地方政府提振經濟的意願,以及水泥企業搶佔市場份額的目標,都可能影響錯峰生產的實施。
如果實施不力,該行預計今年海螺水泥毛利率恢復之路崎嶇。該行對海螺水泥的目標價維持31元,保持「跑贏大市」評級。
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