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瑞銀汪濤:內地經濟活動於春節假期按年大幅反彈 惟仍弱於疫情前水平
阿思達克 01-31 11:06
瑞銀投資銀行亞洲經濟研究主管暨首席中國經濟學家汪濤表示,春節假期前後的高頻資料顯示經濟活動按年大幅反彈,不過部分指標仍遠低於2019年疫情之前的水平。中國已取消大部分防疫限制、且新冠疫情感染可能已經達峰回落,受此影響,1月初經濟活動(尤其是消費和服務)較去年12月的疲態大幅改善。 汪濤指出,今年春節假期期間,人口流動、出境旅遊和國內旅遊收入按年大幅反彈,但仍遠低於2019年疫情前的水平。這與瑞銀在春節前的把脈調查結果一致。隨著被抑制的需求釋放,春節假期期間電影票房創下有史以來的第二高水平。另一方面,1月房地產銷售、整車貨運流量指數和汽車銷售走弱,後者部分是由於汽車購置稅減免到期和春節假期擾動的影響。 此外,汪濤認為經濟活動將在本輪疫情感染結束後復甦並反彈,可能在春節之後、尤其從今年第二季開始大幅反彈。疫情期間的超額儲蓄可能得以釋放,服務業(特別是中小企業活動)的復甦有助於支援就業和家庭收入;兩者均有助於支持未來的消費進一步復甦。未來如果出現新一輪或多輪疫情感染,可能對市場情緒和經濟活動帶來下行風險,而且相比取消防疫限制,居民收入、資產負債表和消費信心的修復可能需要更長時間。該行維持對內地今年消費實際按年增長6.7%的預測。
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