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通脹降溫提振美國消費者信心 相關指數觸及九個月高點
uSMART盈立智投 01-28 09:21

受到收入數據和通脹降溫的鼓舞,美國消費者以九個月來最樂觀的態度進入2023年,即使大多數人仍擔心今年經濟會出現衰退。

智通財經APP獲悉,週五,美國1月密歇根大學消費者信心指數終值錄得64.9,爲2022年4月來新高,去年12月爲59.7。根據媒體的調查,經濟學家的預期中值爲64.6。

消費者對當前狀況的看法出現大幅改善,當前狀況指數較去年12月飆升15%至68.4,也是去年4月以來的最高值。這一指標已經從去年6月的歷史最低點攀升了27%以上,當時,通脹率創下了40年來的新高,導致美聯儲在去年以幾十年來最大的幅度提高利率。

前瞻性預期指標升至一年來的最高水平,但負責消費者調查的主任Joanne  Hsu警告稱,近期有所改善的消費者情緒可能會被美國有關債務上限的政治僵局所破壞。

共和黨人堅稱,如果不削減政府開支就不支持提高債務上限,而拜登政府則反對削減開支,這種僵局預計將在今年晚些時候達到頂峯。

Hsu在一份聲明中表示:“值得注意的是,債務上限的辯論迫在眉睫,可能會扭轉過去幾個月的(消費者情緒)改善。過去在2011年和2013年發生的債務上限危機,曾導致消費者信心急劇下降。”

同時,消費者對未來12個月的短期通脹預期下降到2021年4月以來的最低水平,爲3.9%。他們對未來五年的長期通脹預期則保持穩定,爲2.9%。兩個數據都遠遠低於2022年中期所觸及的高位,當時,消費者價格同比增長超過9%,是20世紀80年代以來的最快增速。

美聯儲青睞的另一個通脹衡量指標在去年12月降至2021年9月以來的最低水平,同比漲幅爲5%,低於去年6月的7%。週五早些時候公佈的這一數據幫助鞏固了人們的預期,即美聯儲在下週開會時將會把近期加息幅度縮減至25個基點。

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