美聯儲2月議息會議前， 債券交易員押注市場將迎來最後一輪加息
距離美聯儲2月1日的利率決定會議還有一週時間，期權市場的交易員正押注市場預期將迎來緊縮週期的最後一輪加息。
在下週的政策會議之前，與隔夜擔保融資利率相關的期權活動主要是爲了對衝美聯儲的鴿派利率政策立場，以及如果投資者降低對未來幾個月美聯儲進一步緊縮的預期。今年下半年，美聯儲將降息大約50個基點的觀點已被基本消化。
上週，掉期交易市場一直在穩步定價，預期未來兩次政策會議加息48個基點左右。意味着如果美聯儲下週將基準利率上調25個基點的可能性很小(大約8%)，這可能是美聯儲在緊縮週期中的最後一步，而這一輪緊縮週期爲幾十年來美聯儲對通脹所採取的最爲激進的行動。
(市場掉期交易價格或於未來兩次美聯儲會議上上調48個基點)
SOFR期權近期表現走鴿的一個例子爲建立了4000萬美元的頭寸，該頭寸將於2023年9月期貨定價的約25個基點的加息溢價受益。其他預期即將走鴿的情景包括對衝聯邦基金利率峯值遠低於多位美聯儲官員所談論的5%水平的可能性。目前，這一比率爲4.3%。
在美債市場，短期收益率開始回落，兩年期美國國債收益率有望創下自2020年3月以來的最大單月跌幅。債券交易員也在押注美聯儲政策利率變化幅度將不會超過5%。
可以肯定的是，在接下來的兩次會議中，每一次會議分別加息25個基點仍爲華爾街的基本預期，儘管這兩次會議之間七週的時間間隔給利率前景增加了一定程度的不確定性。
紐約BMO資本市場公司(BMO Capital Markets)美國利率策略主管伊恩·林根(Ian Lyngen)週一在一份報告中寫道：“鑑於2月和3月FOMC會議之間的時間窗口，美聯儲將在第一季度末開會時對美國經濟數據表現有更深入的見解。”
“我們預計在下一次會議期間獲得的信息將足以支持美聯儲於3月份會議上加息25個基點，但5月份會議的加息可能會被取消。”
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
