《大行報告》摩通上調中石油(00857.HK)目標價至4.5元 料市場對盈喜反應正面
摩根大通發表研究報告指,中石油(00857.HK)的盈喜預計將引起市場積極反應,去年第四季淨利潤預期介乎247億至347億元人民幣,較市場預期高21%至70%。假設中石油維持45%派息率,意味著未期每股派息將介乎0.15至0.18元人民幣,相對市場普遍預期為0.15元人民幣,相當於現時H股股價的5%及A股股價的3%至4%。
雖然期內中石油將錄得一次性虧損127億元人民幣,但主要是來自於減值影響,撇除一次性因素,中石油第四季經營表現仍然強勁,勘探與生產及天然氣和管道業務較受季節性需求增加所帶動,同時天然氣進口虧損亦受惠於低成本俄羅斯天然氣進口及增值稅退稅。
摩通認為中石油現金流狀況強勁,假設派息率輕微上調至50%,未期派息將增至0.19至0.22元人民幣,相當於H股價格的6%至7%和A股價格的4%。相應地該行將中石油2022至2024年每股盈利預測提高9%至22%,港股目標價上調至4.5港元。
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