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《大行報告》瑞信普遍下調航運股目標價 短期偏好中遠海能(01138.HK) 降東方海外(00316.HK)評級至「跑輸大市」
瑞信發表報告指,航運界內不同行業差異將於今年擴大,液貨船將持續受惠結構性上升周期,乾散貨或於需求不確定性下區間上落,貨櫃船下行壓力則可能持續。該行指出,液貨船受惠俄羅斯石油因被制裁而改道,潛在的全球石油補充庫存,中國支持增長的經濟策略及經濟重啟需求,以及國際海事組織環保要求導致相關運載供應進一步收緊。 該行亦指,航運業狀況與2008年全球金融危機不同,在噸位需求更強勁及運載能力供應遠較當時緊張下,目前供需動能狀況較佳,其中液貨船業務最為堅韌,市場現時對液貨船及乾散貨船股份估值已計入下行風險。 該行短期偏好(1)具可見需求催化劑、對應宏觀風險更具韌性;(2)盈利有提升空間;(3)估值較低股份,首選為中遠海能(01138.HK),並下調東方海外(00316.HK)及中遠海控A股(601919.SS)至「跑輸大市」。 下表為瑞信對在港上市航運股最新評級及目標價: 股份│投資評級│目標價 中遠海能(01138.HK)│跑贏大市│9元 太平洋航運(02343.HK)│跑贏大市│3.5元 → 3.2元 海豐國際(01308.HK)│跑贏大市│38元 → 20元 中遠海控(01919.HK)│中性│12元 → 7.5元 東方海外(00316.HK)│中性 → 跑輸大市│230元 → 110元
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