中信證券：Allkem鋰產品售價走高，供給緊張仍未緩解
本文來自格隆匯專欄：中信證券研究；作者：拜俊飛 敖翀
2022年第四季度Allkem鋰產品價格繼續上漲，顯示出全球鋰供應緊張局面尚未緩解。澳洲鋰礦銷售價格持續走高支撐國內鋰鹽成本，鋰價下行空間有限。隨着下游採購走強，鋰價有望止跌反彈。鋰板塊經歷前期調整估值具備吸引力，有望隨鋰價回暖出現反彈。建議關注佈局上游鋰資源的企業。
▍Allkem發佈22Q4季報，鋰礦及鋰鹽售價持續上漲。
1月18日，海外鋰廠商Allkem發佈2022年四季度經營活動報吿，公司鋰精礦售價環比上漲5%，碳酸鋰售價環比上漲23%。鋰精礦產量環比減少6.8%，碳酸鋰產量環比增長29%。
▍鋰精礦價格維持漲勢，支撐碳酸鋰現貨價格。
Mt Cattlin鋰礦22Q4鋰精礦銷售均價為5284美元/噸(CIF, SC5.3)，約合6000美元/噸(FOB, SC6.0)，環比上漲5%，同比上漲231%。考慮到加工費及税費，22Q4精礦價格摺合碳酸鋰成本約為40萬元/噸。22Q4澳洲鋰精礦售價維持高位，表明全球鋰原料供應依然緊張，國內外購精礦的廠商生產成本居高不下，有望支撐鋰鹽價格高位運行。
▍Allkem鋰精礦產銷量持續下滑，加劇鋰精礦供給緊張局面。
Mt Cattlin鋰礦22Q4鋰精礦產銷量分別為1.64/1.57萬噸，環比分別-6.8%/-26%；2022全年產銷量分別為10.7/14.1萬噸，同比分別-53%/-52%。Mt Cattlin鋰礦2023年產量指引僅為14-15萬噸，維持低位運行態勢。作為對外銷售鋰精礦的獨立廠商，Mt Cattlin鋰礦產量的下降使得鋰精礦供應緊張的局面更加嚴峻。
▍Allkem碳酸鋰售價反彈，預計23Q1維持高位。
Olaroz鹽湖22Q4碳酸鋰銷售均價為46706美元/噸，環比上漲23%，同比上漲324%；公司預計23Q1碳酸鋰售價與22Q4持平。公司22Q4碳酸鋰產銷量分別為4253/3131噸，環比分別+29%/-16%，產銷率較低是由於公司優先向Naraha氫氧化鋰工廠供應碳酸鋰原料；2022年公司碳酸鋰產銷量分別為1.4/1.3萬噸，同比分別+8%/+17%。
▍在建項目穩步推進，23Q2有望新增2.5萬噸年產能。
Olaroz二期擴產項目(2.5萬噸碳酸鋰)建設已完成96%，計劃於23Q2投產；Naraha氫氧化鋰工廠已經投產，22Q4銷售約200噸氫氧化鋰；Sal de Vida項目EIA獲批，工程建設正常推進，計劃於2024年中投產；James Bay項目進度為54%，ESIA已經獲批。
▍風險因素：
產能擴張進度不及預期的風險；相關企業海外經營受阻的風險；鋰價下跌的風險；鋰價過高影響下游需求的風險。
▍投資策略：
2022年第四季度Allkem鋰產品價格繼續上漲，顯示出全球鋰供應緊張局面尚未緩解。澳洲鋰礦銷售價格持續走高支撐國內鋰鹽成本，鋰價下行空間有限。隨着下游採購走強，鋰價有望止跌反彈。鋰板塊經歷前期調整估值具備吸引力，有望隨鋰價回暖出現反彈。建議關注佈局上游鋰資源的企業。
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