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瑞銀:料中國重新開放推動今年GDP回升至約5%
阿思達克 01-18 16:28
瑞銀財富管理投資總監辦公室表示,近期中國宣布自1月8日起下調新冠病毒感染管理標準並取消入境旅客隔離措施,表明穩增長被置於優先位置。這意味著全面重新開放可能將在今年第一季實現。 該行關注重點將從「何時」轉向「如何」重新開放,目前其基準情景是動態清零政策下的多數限制措施迅速解除,使得主要城市在幾周內達到感染高峰。部份地區可能再次實施短暫的小幅度限制。一旦感染人數在春節後回穩,料消費和經濟活動最早將於2月開始復甦,並從第二季起加快步伐,料今年消費增長約為5%,而社交活動較快回升有望為上半年帶來更大的上行空間,有助GDP增長在今年回升至約5%。 該行認為,重新開放受益者將在未來6至12個月跑贏中國股票基準指數的幅度將達到兩位數。信用債方面,投資級債仍具吸引力,而亞洲高收益債今年的總回報率可能達到7至10%。石油和人民幣亦應受到中國重新開放步伐加快的提振。
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