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中銀香港(02388.HK)料今年香港經濟恢復增長 人民幣匯價穩中有升
阿思達克 01-17 16:35
中銀香港(02388.HK)發表2023年環球經濟展望,中國銀行香港金融研究院副院長瞿亢表示,各國貨幣政策趨緊、加息影響滯後,加上經濟增長持續放緩,預期衰退風險依然上升,相信2023年環球將仍然受到通脹的影響。 但他指出,內地防疫政策鬆綁,重新開放促進消費市場回暖,穩增長的政策年內需時見效,中國最新公布去年經濟增長為3%,低基數下今年將可強勁復甦,相信今年後段表現會較強,經濟向好的市場預期會帶動人民幣走強,預料今年人民幣兌美元將穩中有升。 香港發展前景方面,他形容是「機遇與挑戰並存」,指出環球經濟衰退及地緣政治因素影響本港外貿,但由於未有受到通脹壓力及戰爭的正面打擊,預期通關及對外開放下,香港可繼續發揮超級聯繫人的優勢,預期今年經濟重回正增長。 中銀香港高級經濟研究員丁孟表示,市場估計美國今年仍會加息兩次,每次25個基點,但普遍預期美聯儲今年已步入加息週期尾聲,上半年利率或見頂,接近5%。他又指,美國通脹情況依然相對嚴峻,衰退風險增加,但通脹拐點已於去年出現。現時美國通脹水平回落至6.5%,與聯儲局的2%目標有一定距離,他相信今年內較難達標。 談及股市走勢,他指出,今年市場波幅不少,中港股市首階段反彈主要來受到估值正常化的推動,其後的增長則要視乎經濟是否可復甦,料恆指突破22,500點後可於22,500至25,000點區間橫行;而上證綜合指數正在上試250天線,若可突破則下一步看3,400點。
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