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瑞銀汪濤料內地今年出口或轉跌4% 下半年人幣將走強
阿思達克 01-16 11:41
瑞銀投資銀行亞洲經濟研究主管暨首席中國經濟學家汪濤表示,中國全年出口增速從2021年的29.9%放緩至2022年的7.1%,進口增速從2021年的30.1%大幅下降至1.1%。進口的按年跌幅收窄,短期貿易活動可能持續下跌。 汪濤預計,短期內出口增長將保持下行,未來幾個月繼續按年下跌。不過經濟重啟和內地活動改善可能會支持相關材料和產品的進口,故預計今年全年出口下降4%,而去年全年增長了7.1%。 她指,近期人民幣兌美元匯率大幅升值,11月以來升值5%以上、最近幾天突破6.75,主要由於中國經濟重啟和美元大幅走弱推動,故預計今年底對人民幣兌美元匯率為6.8。在短期內,美聯儲進一步加息可能會導致人民幣在近期強勢後出現一些波動。然而,隨著中國經濟增長加速、美聯儲開始放鬆貨幣政策,她預計今年下半年人民幣匯率將走強。
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