預計美聯儲將加息至5.5%左右的峯值
近日，三位頂尖經濟學家同時警告稱，爲抗擊高通脹，美聯儲將再加息一個百分點。Wenxin Du、Randall Kroszner和Raghuram Rajan教授週二在芝加哥大學布斯商學院(University of Chicago Booth School of Business)的一次活動上表示，利率很可能會達到5.5%左右的峯值，並將在更長時間內保持較高水平，以遏制從食品到燃料等各種價格的螺旋式上漲。
前美聯儲理事Kroszner表示：“我確實認爲美聯儲將繼續維持利率不變，並將保持一段時間。今年通脹率將下降200個基點，也許300個基點，但美聯儲會將利率維持在5.5%。”
去年，隨着經濟重新開放和俄烏衝突顛覆大宗商品市場，全球對商品和服務的需求出現反彈，美國通脹飆升至40年來的最高水平。儘管此後物價有所回落，但仍遠高於美聯儲2%的目標。
2013年至2016年擔任印度央行行長的Rajan表示，美聯儲“當然已經意識到自己落後於曲線，但問題是，它必須緊縮多久，又必須保持多久”。
上個月，美聯儲官員已將利率上調至4.25-4.5%，根據他們的預測中值顯示，今年底利率將升至5.1%。而Kroszner、Rajan和Du都認爲，美聯儲維持高利率是爲了防止通脹反彈。
上世紀70年代就是一次教訓，當時通脹出現放緩時，美聯儲繼續放鬆貨幣政策，結果通脹再次擡頭。Kroszner在活動上接受採訪時表示，當時這樣做的結果就是，美聯儲失去了作爲有效控制價格工具的信譽，被迫將利率提高到遠高於10%的水平。
不過，通脹預期仍處於可控範圍的事實，意味着美聯儲可以更加謹慎。
“這就是上世紀70年代末、80年代初和今天之間的巨大差異，”他表示，“美聯儲沒有失去市場的信譽，因此它當然需要提高利率，但不需要像以前那樣加息。”
最後，經濟學家們表示，加息可能會導致美國在今年年底陷入輕度衰退。Du警告稱，任何衰退都將是短暫的，而Rajan認爲，美聯儲將非常謹慎，以免被指責爲衰退的策劃者。
Kroszner表示，即使通脹開始下降，美聯儲仍將維持利率在高位，這是通脹在出現明顯下降趨勢之前將實際利率維持在低位的政策工具之一。
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