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《大行報告》大和降潤電(00836.HK)評級至「持有」 目標價升至18.5元
大和發表報告,降華潤電力(00836.HK)評級由「跑贏大市」下調至「持有」,調低對其2022至2024年盈測介乎2%至13%,以反映煤價上升及合營/聯營虧損;目標價則由16元升至18.5元。 該行指其火電廠板塊持續受壓,由於煤價在內地多數省份已屆15%至20%上行浮動上限,基本情境估算爲收支平衡,甚至有機會錄虧損。且公司槓桿比率上升,但缺乏股本融資活動,每股分派上行空間有限。該行估計華潤電力今明兩年股息率料4.6%至4.8%,在具風險利率環境下並不吸引。 大和稱,華潤電力自去年12月28日至今年1月5日累升約30%,主因太陽能供應鏈價格下跌。不過,相較火電同業,該行認爲華潤電力價格已過高,估值相當於預測今年市賬率0.9倍,同業華能(00902.HK)及華電(01071.HK)則分別爲0.5倍及0.4倍。 此外,相較可再生能源同業,華潤電力可再生能源產能比例僅31%,遠低於大唐新能源(01798.HK)及龍源(00916.HK)分別99%及93%。即使在2021至2025年間,華潤電力管理層擬擴張可再生能源產能40吉瓦,惟項目資金來源有限,每年220億至240億港元經營現金流主要來自火電廠,不足以應付約400億港元的每年資本開支。反之,同業中國電力(02380.HK)計劃在2022至2025年每年建立8至10吉瓦可再生能源產能,將專注於綠色能源過渡。
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