《大行報告》摩通料中國今年GDP增長4.3% 中資股迎周期性上行 薦騰訊、中移動、比亞迪等
阿思達克 01-06 12:08
摩根大通發表報告指，去年12月中旬內地舉行中央經濟工作會議，以穩增長為主題；該行料中國去年GDP增長2.8%，今年料加快至4.3%，消費將成為主要驅動力，而出口則屬拖累；房地產市場料續拖累，但影響力度不及去年。
報告解釋，該行對中國今年GDP增長預測低於市場預期的5%主要有兩大原因，包括重新開放期間的陣痛；以及與同業預期不同，摩通料今年內地實施財政政策收緊。這不是因為政府預算收緊財政政策，而是今年財政刺激措施中，料不會有重大提前撥款。
摩通料中國股票今年有周期性上行，預測由現在至今年底，MSCI中國指數有10%上行空間，這將驅動MSCI中國指數重返約去年8月水平。中國股票自去年11月起的反彈，反映在重新開放、內房企業融資及中美關係方面較預期為早但仍未完成的政策及行動。該行料未來或面對成熟市場衰退風險，每股盈測下降及風險胃納轉弱。惟隨著消費及營商信心逐漸回復，情況料將改善。至今年底，市場屆時料對2024年復甦抱更積極看法。
在去年跌市中，沉重沽壓導致一些具穩固業務的公司估值下滑。該行料今年中國周期性上行可領跑全球，並隨後過渡至2024年與全球一起復甦的主題。該行重申中國是亞太(日本除外)市場中核心「增持」市場，偏好互聯網、消費、能源及工業板塊。
該行策略團隊喜好股票包括騰訊(00700.HK)、中移動(00941.HK)、拼多多(PDD.US)、比亞迪(01211.HK)、百勝中國(09987.HK)、青啤(00168.HK)、中海外(00688.HK)、潤地(01109.HK)、神華(01088.HK)、潤燃(01193.HK)、中建材(03323.HK)、鞍鋼(00347.HK)、贛鋒鋰業(01772.HK)、龍源(00916.HK)、建行(00939.HK)、中國人壽(02628.HK)、中信証券(06030.HK)，以及貴州茅台(600519.SH)、寧德時代(300750.SZ)等。
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