《大行報告》摩通:百威亞太(01876.HK)、六福(00590.HK)、飛鶴(06186.HK)及李寧(02331.HK)等受惠「報復式消費」
摩根大通發表研究報告指,中國較預期更早、更快地實施重新開放,自今年1月8日起撤銷對入境旅客的檢疫要求,較市場預期早了約六個月,預計內地新冠Omicron疫情可於2月份在大多數城市見頂,確診數字或於3月至4月逐漸回落。
該行表示,參考其他地區經驗來看,服裝、餐飲、體育用品、汽車、家庭用品和百貨於疫情初期銷售最受打擊,但在重新開放後亦是反彈最快的行業,然後預期在未來六至九個月期間相關行業復甦勢頭將放緩,邁向正常化。
該行預期,內地消費行業今年銷售額及盈利可按年增長12%及25%,在基本面改善前,板塊料搶先迎來進一步估值重評;在「報復性消費」趨勢中,上調百威亞太(01876.HK)、六福(00590.HK)、中國飛鶴(06186.HK)評級至「增持」,並看好奈雪的茶(02150.HK)、李寧(02331.HK)及歐派家居(603833.SH),亦予「增持」評級。
另外摩通亦指出,隨著內地當局不再提及「動態清零」方針,轉為更加關注經濟發展,對今年中國經濟及消費市場前景看法更穩固,相信百勝中國(09987.HK)(YUMC.US)、青島啤酒(00168.HK)、華潤啤酒(00291.HK)、貴州茅台(600519.SH)、瀘州老窖(000568.SZ)、李寧、申洲國際(02313.HK)、周大福(01929.HK)、美的集團(000333.SZ)、科沃斯(603486.SH)、貝泰妮生物(300957.SZ)及珀萊雅(603605.SH)等行業巨頭,都已做好準備實現長期高質量增長。
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