海通國際:通關提振經濟 美國難免衰退
海通國際環球資產管理部主管王勝祖認為,本港與內地通關在短期內將對香港疫情造成壓力,但以宏觀環境來看是利多於弊,因對旅遊消費均有提振作用。
他表示,中國已渡過政策緊縮期,經濟正提速邁向增長。他指出,今年中國經濟仍有不確定性,但料政策有助穩經濟,預期貨幣政策保持穩中趨鬆,財政政策可發揮更大作用,地方政府繼續支持中小微企業,大力減稅降費,其加大對科技創新的支持力度。
假設美國不出現更多的公共衛生、地緣政治衝突、自然災害等意外事件,其整體CPI或已見頂,惟核心通脹率至少將在未來6至12個月居高不下,在3至5%以上高位波動,遠超美聯儲的2%目標。他預期,今年上半年美國仍或會加息50至75個基點,而經濟衰退很大可能無法避免。
海通國際私人財富管理部首席投資總監陳彥甫予美股「低配」評級,料其盈利在今年第二季前將繼續下降,另外,高通脹亦會導致利潤率壓縮。他預期,美國金融狀況將持續收緊,標準普爾500未來12個月市盈率將在今年上半年觸底見14.8倍。
他認為,今年年初防禦類股份在發達市場將跑贏大市,又建議保持保守的行業配置,並在PMI變化轉正而且收益率水平開始降低時增加更多周期性風險敝口。
他又對今年中國股市謹慎樂觀,在港股方面,予可選行業、必需行業、能源、醫藥、以及房地產「超配」評級,而IT及工業則予「低配」。至於A股,公用事業、IT、能源、醫藥、及工業均為「超配」評級,金融行業則為「低配」。
他又指,內地科技行業強監管似乎已經見底,並未有再收緊,而美國放鬆對中國企業審查,退市風險已基本消失。另外,互聯網行業跟消費有關,今年防疫措施正常化,加上消費復甦,均令人對行業有期待,而這些因素已在市場提前反映。
對於互聯互通擴容,他指出市場未有大波動,是由於國內投資者對境外上市中資股有較大興趣,對現時新增的公司股票意欲相對較小。
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