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《大行報告》中信證券:保險股首選友邦(01299.HK)評級「買入」 上調今年新業務價值預測
中信證券發表研究報告指出,內地於三年疫情管控期間,壽險公司隊伍普遍遭遇嚴重挑戰,存量人力大幅萎縮,新增人力面臨招人難留人更難的困境。和同業公司相比,友邦(01299.HK)在內地的隊伍存量上基本保持穩定,相對優勢大幅提高;增量上對高素質人力具有職業吸引力,隊伍有望最快恢復增長。 此外,該行認為香港和內地通關在即,友邦香港業務正迎來右側增長拐點。和2015至2016年市場擔心人民幣貶值不同,預計今年起內地訪客配置保單的需求在於海外高利率的儲蓄需求和健康保障需求。至於其他市場方面,中信證券指友邦持續優化區域佈局,提高增長潛力。 中信證券預期,友邦最有可能、並最先回到歷史最好狀態。和同業公司不同,在疫情期間友邦最大限度地保持存量優勢,在北京、上海、深圳等中國發達城市相對優勢都有顯著提高。同時公司在戰略上持續深耕,包括推進中國區域佈局、投資上豐富渠道優勢和健康網絡優勢,內在能力和2019年相比不但沒有下降,反而得到顯著增強。基於對友邦中國業務、香港業務、其他亞太區域市場的發展態勢判斷,該行認為公司在2023年有望率先實現顯著復甦;並預計明年有望創出歷史新高。 考慮到去年下半年以來內地先後受到較大範圍的疫情管控、管控放開後疫情大範圍傳播的影響,中信證券下調友邦去年新業務價值預測至32億美元,按年跌5%(前值33.2億美元,按年跌1%)。另預計香港通關後會帶來顯著的一次性提振,但由於疫情仍然存在不確定性,且流失的代理人團隊需要時間重聚,謹慎假設公司的香港離岸業務恢復至2019 年的三分之一左右,相應上調公司今年新業務價值預測至37.8億美元,按年增長18%(前值36.9億美元,按年增長11%)。目標價為101元,維持「買入」評級,是保險股中的首選。
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