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《大行報告》中金料內房行業需求端和其他宏觀政策將進一步發力 帶動銷售修復
中金發表報告指,上周49城新房銷售面積環比增長41%,按年跌幅收窄至-10%;12月新房銷售面積環比增長16%,累計按年下降 28%;去年新房銷售面積累計按年下降34%。 該行指,去年12月新房銷售環比11月略有好轉但幅度有限,按年仍跌約三成。該行預計行業需求端政策和其他宏觀政策還將進一步發力,帶動銷售在疫情影響消退和推盤上量後修復;中長期而言,該行繼續看好財務穩健、土儲優質、拿地積極的均好型房企在行業格局優化過程中的受益邏輯。 中金指,H股建議把握兩條選股主線,第一是均好型房企逢低吸籌機會出現,如華潤置地(01109.HK)、中海外(00688.HK)、綠城中國(03900.HK)、越秀地產(00123.HK)。第二是博弈民企財務脫困帶來的交易型機會,如旭輝(00884.HK)。物管板塊長期推薦中海物業(02669.HK)、萬物雲(02602.HK)、保利物業(06049.HK)、華潤萬象(01209.HK),風偏更高的投資者可關注部分民企標的短期波段交易機會,典型代表如旭輝永升服務(01995.HK)和寶龍商業(09909.HK)。
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