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花旗:今年恆指或上試2,3000點 樓價首季再跌5%
阿思達克 01-03 12:37
花旗銀行財富管理業務高級投資策略師陳正犖預料,今年恆指或上試2,3000點,潛在總回報約16.3%,料首季較為反覆。他又表示,本港住宅樓價或今年首季進一步下跌5%並見底,並在餘下季度期間反彈5%,料累計今年全年表現持平,主要是經濟轉好令本港潛在買家增加、與內地通關利好香港前景,並推動更多內地潛在買家來港買樓。 他預料,美國加息周期於今年上半年結束,2月加息幅度為0.5厘、3月及5月則各收窄加幅為0.25厘,而上半年最終聯邦利率達5.25%至5.5%,加上貨幣政策轉好,故有利好本港樓市走勢,並預料按息以及銀行同業拆息將於今年見頂。 他預料,今年第三季起美國經濟陷入溫和衰退,失業率或回升至5%,通脹今年底或見3.5%,明年底則或見2.5%,惟未有太大可能回落至疫前水平。 至於內地經濟展望,目前疫情反彈正值生產淡季,料對整體經濟增長影響不大,料全年生產總值達5.3%,不排除有機會進一步上行空間,視乎內地整體經濟發展進度。
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