《大行報告》瑞銀降中國海外(00688.HK)及龍湖(00960.HK)評級至「中性」 下調萬科(02202.HK)、融創(01918.HK)及旭輝(00884.HK)評級至「沽售」
瑞銀髮表研究報告指,經歷近期內房股股價上漲後,對該板塊更加看淡,認爲當局去年下半年出臺支持措施後,市場關注正轉至市場需求復甦情況,預期需求復甦會呈「L型」。
該行解釋,與全球主要城市相比,中國的一至二線主要城市的住宅物業定價過高,而低線城市住宅物業建設過度,庫存達到27個月,高於過去十年平均水平,預期在當局「房住不炒」方針下2022至2030年每年市場需求爲約9.75億平方米,預測今年住宅銷售、開工、完工量將按年下降10%、14%及9%。
瑞銀將未違約的內房2023至2024年盈利預測下調43%,以反映期內合同銷售額及利潤率預測下降36%及5.4個百分點,當中預計國企及優質民營內房盈利將下降40%至42%。
該行表示,首選仍爲華潤置地(01109.HK),維持「買入」評級,並將中國海外(00688.HK)及龍湖(00960.HK)的評級由「買入」下調至「中性」,萬科(02202.HK)、旭輝(00884.HK)及融創(01918.HK)則降至「沽售」,雅居樂(03383.HK)由「沽售」上調至「中性」。
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