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《大行報告》美銀證券調整本港地產收租股目標價 降太古(00019.HK)評級至「中性」
美銀證券發表研究報告,表示美國潛在經濟衰退的壓力下,預期香港房地產市場今年上半年將未見明顯起色,相信要到第四季才會見到復甦,預期今年樓價將下跌4%至8%,即2022年至2023年累跌19%至23%。 該行指出,預期美國今年首季會再次加息75個基點,至第四季才可能減息,因此預計香港按揭利率仍會繼續上升並在高位維持一段時間,雖然認為內地重新開放是利好因素,但並不是「萬靈藥」。 鑑於內地經濟依然疲軟、消費習慣改變、人民幣疲軟及海南免稅市場的競爭,美銀預計未來兩年內地旅客入港香港的人數將恢復到疫情前水平的40%至50%,帶動香港零售銷售增長18%至22%,但由於租金水平可能滯後,預計2023至2024年高檔零售商舖租金將增長5%以上,而大眾市場門店租金將溫和上升。 商業物業方面,該行預計2023年核心及非核心地段寫字樓租金將下降5%至10%。美銀將本港地產收租股目標價平均上調16%,考慮到估值及槓桿比率,較看好恆隆地產(00101.HK)、希慎(00014.HK)及領展(00823.HK),維持對恆地(00012.HK)維持「跑輸大市」評級,並將太古(00019.HK)下調至「中性」。
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