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《大行報告》瑞信上調招行(03968.HK)及郵儲銀行(01658.HK)目標價 前景較好
瑞信發表研究報告指,2023年的內地銀行前景更為明朗。該行將平安銀行(000001.SZ)、郵儲銀行(01658.HK)及寧波銀行(002142.SZ)2022年收入和盈測下調,以反映第四季充滿挑戰;並上調2023年的收入和盈測。 該行指,中國在12月初起以快於預期的速度重新開放,令其相信中國2022年GDP增長或低於3%,而2023年GDP可能增逾5%,當中,消費的提振最為強勁。由於經濟增長復甦及房地產風險降低,該行對中國銀行業有更好展望。 該行上調2023年的淨息差和淨手續費收入預測,並下調信貸成本,料平安銀行、寧波銀行和郵儲銀行在2023年的收入增長率更高,分別為9.3%、17.6%及10.1%,相對2022年料增長為8.1%、12.5%及7.0%;又預計銀行的資產質量將在2023年保持穩定。 該行提到,銀行的盈利在2022年具有彈性,基於更強勁的收入和穩固的資產質量,更好的增長質量將繼續支持行業重估。鑑於零售、房地產敞口和銀行質量,該行看好平安銀行、招商銀行(03968.HK)、寧波銀行和郵儲銀行。該行分別上調招行、平安銀行、寧波銀行和郵儲銀行目標價至54.4港元、15.8元人民幣、39元人民幣、及5.9港元(此前的目標價為41.7港元、14.6元人民幣、36元人民幣、及5.4港元),維持「跑贏大市」評級。
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