2023年黃金能否翻身？
在經歷了幾年的低迷之後，2023年可能最終會成爲金礦商的大年。其中，紐曼礦業(NEM.US)和巴裏克黃金(GOLD.US)是該板塊中領先的藍籌股。
對於一些人來說，這可能令人驚訝，因爲在此期間黃金有許多潛在的上行催化劑：新冠疫情的反彈、40年的高通脹、俄烏衝突的爆發、衰退威脅的上升以及中東和遠東地緣政治緊張局勢的加劇。
然而，央行收緊政策和利率上升似乎共同抑制了黃金價格，而礦商不斷上升的運營成本共同擠壓了它們的利潤，打壓了它們的股價。此外，地緣政治風險上升，美國以外其他主要經濟體的經濟狀況甚至更糟，導致美元走強，這反過來又削弱了黃金的相對錶現。
也就是說，有幾個原因將導致2023年對黃礦商可能會更友好。
首先，金礦商已被打壓至我們認爲具有高度吸引力的價值水平。例如，紐曼礦業和巴裏克黃金這兩家行業藍籌股都擁有行業內最好的資產和資產負債表，它們的股息收益率和估值都具有歷史吸引力。
其次，鑑於預計2023年將發生經濟衰退，行業基本面可能會進一步改善，這將導致運營(勞動力和能源)成本放緩。
最後，黃金價格的前景也在顯著改善，原因有幾個。央行對黃金的需求在2022年達到55年來的高點，同比增長383%，隨着全年需求的加速，沒有理由相信黃金需求將在2023年逐漸減少。此外，隨着經濟衰退的臨近，投資者可能會越來越多地進入避險模式，而黃金通常是這種情況下的投資選擇。或許最重要的是，進一步大幅加息的可能性似乎正在顯著減弱。這是一個看漲黃金的指標，因爲這意味着即使明年通脹開始大幅下降，實際利率也可能保持在負值。從歷史上看，負實際利率對金價非常有利。
總體而言，這兩家公司目前都提供有吸引力的風險回報——尤其是考慮到對黃金和銅價的看漲前景。但巴裏克黃金更被看好，因爲其估值略低於紐曼礦業。
巴裏克黃金目前的企業價值和EBITDA倍數爲7.68倍，紐曼礦業爲8.21倍。
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