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消費股全線衝高!政策利好疊加節假日臨近,機構一致看好後市,建議增配板塊

港股消費股集體走高,其中,節假日概念板塊中,美團漲近7%,中國中免漲超3%;餐飲股呷哺呷哺漲超17%,海底撈漲超9%,九毛九漲6%;酒精飲料股亦多數上揚。

近日,國金證券指,公司核心看點爲α層面困境反轉+β層面疫後復甦帶來業績、估值修復,預計22E~24E歸母淨利-2.4/3.2/6.5億元,目標價9.7港元,首次覆蓋給予「買入」。

體育用品板塊中,李寧、滔搏漲超7%,安踏、特步漲超4%。

招商證券此前預計,在體育用品消費方面,國內運動品牌將繼續專注於通過打折來去庫存。事實上,耐克在中國的庫存是健康的,意味着耐克不會給行業增加更多的折扣壓力。預計中國消費將在2023年二季度反彈。維持李寧、特步和安踏的「增持」評級。

東吳證券本週也表示,線下門店客流有望率先恢復,居民收入預期和消費意願的恢復則需要一定過程。運動服飾龍頭因受居民消費力下降影響較小、有望在消費場景放開後率先復甦,推薦李寧、安踏等。

政策利好疊加節假日臨近,催化復甦題材熱炒

消息面上,近期,北京重新開放堂食等等舉措表明消費場景在快速恢復,再加上聖誕、元旦假期即將來臨,機構普遍看好消費復甦主線。

除此,中共中央、國務院近日印發《擴大內需戰略規劃綱要(2022-2035年)》,將內需和消費市場提升至國家戰略高度。

《綱要》要求持續提升傳統消費、積極發展服務消費、加快培育新型消費等,從而全面促進消費和加快消費提質升級,建立國內大循環爲主體、國內國際雙循環的格局。

此外,近期召開的高層會議中央經濟工作會議也提及,「大力提振市場信心,實施擴大內需戰略」,強調提升內需對經濟增長的拉動作用。

擴內需大方向下,多地發力促進消費。目前,已有廣州、深圳、重慶、河南、新疆、南京、成都等地下發消費券。與此同時,12月臨近年底,聖誕節和元旦都將到來,節假日作用下,消費有望進一步恢復。

機構:消費有望在2023年二季度開始步入改善通道,建議動態增配

中信證券認爲,結合疫情發展和考慮低基數效應,消費有望在2023年二季度開始步入改善通道。對應到市場表現節奏,預計分三階段演繹:

第一階段爲防疫政策放鬆預期到落地階段,已基本完成;當前進入到預期落地後與病毒共存經歷疫情高峯的平臺期;伴隨疫情影響消化、完全迴歸常態,預計將進入消費數據實際明顯回升階段。其中第一和第三階段消費市場表現更強,伴隨數據回升高點出現股價高點。

結構上,中信證券預計,呈現從本地活躍到跨距離出行,從商品到服務,先必需後可選的復甦路徑,而服務及可選的修復彈性後期更大。

配置上,中信證券認爲,雖然疫情的影響仍然存在,但疫情管控的放開和促消費大方向的明確建議動態增配。建議:

1)繼續配置疫後修復彈性最爲明顯的出行鏈板塊;2)動態增加酒類、消費互聯網、運動、食品、美妝等景氣代表性強勢能賽道的配置;3)關注糧食安全、地產產業鏈復甦主題下種業、家居等板塊階段性機會。4)自下而上優選疫情下景氣度相對較好、業績兌現能力強的個股機會,主要集中於供應鏈生產型企業、休閒食品企業等。
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